- GUAM and Regional Cooperation
- The Russia-Ukraine War and Regional Security
- Western Responses to Russia’s Actions
- The Role of the European Union Monitoring Mission
- The Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace Process
- Armenia’s Elections and Regional Implications
- Russia’s Pressure on Armenia and Eurasian Institutions
- Regional Connectivity and Future Cooperation
- Conclusion
GUAM and Regional Cooperation
The conversation opened with a discussion of GUAM, the Organization for Democracy and Economic Development, which brings together Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, and Moldova. Chechelashvili recalled the importance of GUAM as a regional platform connecting countries that have faced similar geopolitical pressures and security challenges. He also emphasized that Ukraine’s struggle today has broader significance for the independence and security of other countries in the region.
The Russia-Ukraine War and Regional Security
A major part of the interview focused on the Russia-Ukraine war and its impact on the wider regional order. Chechelashvili argued that Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 created a new political reality in Europe. In his view, the invasion was not an isolated event but part of a longer pattern that began with Russia’s war against Georgia in 2008 and continued with the annexation of Crimea in 2014.
He stated that Russia has repeatedly violated the basic principles of international law, including the sovereignty and territorial integrity of neighboring states. At the same time, he argued that the original Russian objectives in Ukraine have failed. According to Chechelashvili, Ukraine has survived as a strong state, strengthened its national identity, and built a more capable army since the beginning of the war.
Western Responses to Russia’s Actions
The discussion also examined the Western response to Russia’s actions. Hasanov raised the question of whether stronger reactions after the 2008 war in Georgia or the 2014 annexation of Crimea could have prevented later escalation. Chechelashvili noted that the response after 2008 was mostly limited to declarations and assistance to Georgia, while the response after Crimea included sanctions and Russia’s exclusion from the G8. However, he suggested that the current war has produced a much deeper strategic confrontation between Russia and the West.
The Role of the European Union Monitoring Mission
Another important topic was the role of the European Union Monitoring Mission. Chechelashvili explained that the EU monitoring presence in Georgia remains important because it observes and reports developments near the occupied territories and helps limit the risk of further “creeping occupation.” He contrasted this with the Armenia-Azerbaijan border, where he argued that the situation is different because both sides are engaged in direct negotiations and the border has been relatively stable in recent years.
The Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace Process
The Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process was one of the central themes of the second half of the conversation. Chechelashvili expressed optimism that the existing peace process could lead to a formal agreement. He argued that direct dialogue between Azerbaijan and Armenia has already produced important results and that a peace agreement would benefit not only both countries but the entire South Caucasus.
Armenia’s Elections and Regional Implications
The interview also looked ahead to Armenia’s elections and their possible impact on the region. Chechelashvili said he expected Nikol Pashinyan and his political team to win, while noting that the size of the victory would be important. In his assessment, a strong mandate could help move forward constitutional changes and other steps needed for a final peace agreement with Azerbaijan.
Russia’s Pressure on Armenia and Eurasian Institutions
Chechelashvili also discussed Russia’s pressure on Armenia and argued that Moscow’s actions could weaken the credibility of Eurasian institutions such as the Eurasian Economic Union and the Collective Security Treaty Organization. In his view, if Russia is seen as punishing one of its own allies, other member states may question the value of these organizations.
Regional Connectivity and Future Cooperation
The conversation concluded with a broader reflection on regional connectivity. Chechelashvili stressed that peace could transform the South Caucasus from a region of confrontation into a region of cooperation, trade, and integration. He pointed to existing Azerbaijan-Georgia projects, including energy and transport corridors, as examples of how regional cooperation can create benefits beyond national borders.
Conclusion
Overall, the interview presented the South Caucasus as a region at a turning point. The war in Ukraine, the future of Georgia’s security, the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process, and the role of external powers are all connected. The central message of the discussion was that lasting peace and regional cooperation could open a new chapter for the South Caucasus, but this will depend on political will, stable diplomacy, and the ability of regional actors to move beyond old conflicts.
